How Might McCain Win?

Here is the scenario (however unlikely)...

1. The markets continue to surge for the rest of the week. People forget about how bad the market is (was).
2. They begin to pay attention to Obama's socialist connections and get scared.
3. The conservative talking heads start saying how crazy it would be for there to be a Democrat in the White House and a Democrat controlled congress. Remember, the American people like gridlock, as my favorite Democrat commentator told me once.
4. McCain does a media blitz and clearly and passionately communicates his vision for America and why it is superior to Obama's.

Here are all the factors that will cause McCain to lose.
1. The economy and how the R is getting the blame for it. If the economy was doing well, McCain would be ahead slightly.
2. His connection to Bush (which is related to reason number 1).
3. His inability to clearly communicate his vision for America.

If something could happen to affect these three things very positively in the next 7 days McCain could win.

Will it happen? Not likely.

I put the odds of McCain winning at about 20-30% at this point.

Who Really Cares?

Disclaimer: I'm not saying that all liberals are ungenerous, many of them are more generous than I am. I'm just looking at the statistics and reporting. Don't shoot the messenger.

Further disclosure: One mitigating factor in the disparity between "liberals" and "conservatives" giving is that "liberals" normally live in areas where cost of living is higher (urban areas) than in more rural areas where people are more conservative. However, I don't think this makes up for the 30% difference.

A lot of people think that liberals are more caring, and more concerned with the poor and the welfare of society than conservatives. As I have said before, it simply is not true. Conservatives are MORE concerned about the betterment of society than liberals, at least, our checkbooks, our time, and our blood says so. This study was between principled conservatives and principled liberals. It compared the 30% of society that calls themselves liberal, versus the 40% of society that calls themselves conservative. The 30% of society that calls themselves "centrist" or "moderate" was excluded from this study. Conservative families give 30% more to charities, and lest you think the conservative families have higher incomes, they didn't in this study, the liberal families made 6% more income, yet gave 30% less to charity. In addition, the conservative group were 51% more likely to volunteer and conservative volunteers spent 12% more hours volunteering than liberals in any given year. If liberals and moderates gave as much blood as conservatives we would increase our blood supply by 45% (meaning that conservatives give about twice as much blood as liberals.)

In addition to conservatives being more generous, the things that they do to help the poor are more effective, and more personal than what liberals do for the poor and downtrodden. The bottom line is the "common knowledge" that liberals care more about the poor and downtrodden than conservatives is a myth.

I got these statistics from Arthur C. Brooks' book "Who Really Cares?" You can find it on Google books for free here. If you don't want to wade through the book read this article.

Republican Tax Policies

If you aren't yet convinced that Republicans have better tax policies than Democrats I dare you to read these two posts.

Here, and here.

The Importance of This Election and Some Predictions

This election is very important, and there are two very imperfect candidates up for election. Politics is necessarily about compromise, and that is what we all must do with our respective candidates, weigh the pros and cons and then compromise by picking the lesser of two evils. If you see it as anything other than that, I would question your sanity. I do fight hard for McCain and Palin, not because they are perfect or that everything will go my way if they get elected, not because they will usher in some kind of Christian utopia or theocracy, or even because they are "stand-up" people. To not do so will enable a genuinely nice guy like Obama to get elected who will enact policies harmful to the moral fabric of America by signing the Freedom of Choice Act. He will elect liberal justices to the supreme court who will legislate from the bench. He will take us further down the road of failed socialistic welfare and healthcare policies. He will put more oppressive taxes on the system and will not cut spending.

If Obama gets elected this will speed the decline of American Exceptionalism in the world. I'm not saying things will go to Hell in a handbasket, but we will see the further (or at least faster) decline of society, abortions will no doubt skyrocket both in number and per capita (I'm guessing by 5% per year at the end of his 4th year), we will see even more fatherless families (see the video below about how not to help the poor). Our economy will probably be ok, but it will be stifled by his tax and spend agenda, and the welfare aspect of his utopian dream will discourage hard work and ingenuity. Again, I'm not saying McCain would prevent all of these things from happening we may well be on an irreversible course toward some of these things I mentioned above, but an Obama Presidency will get us there faster.

Ten Things I Hate About You... McCain

1. Your support of stem-cell research.
2. Your support of exceptions for abortion.
3. Your recent language about "predatory lending" instead of calling Americans financially irresponsible as we really are. I know why he did it. He didn't want to call all the idiots who got themselves into loans that they couldn't afford morons because they might not vote for him. This group represents a sizable constituency. Yeah, the lenders had culpability too, but "Every man's got to know his limitations" to quote the brilliant philosopher Clint Eastwood.
4. Your inability to communicate why your plans and policies are better than Obama's. He has some really good policies and positions, but he is unable to communicate them with the American people, and show the big distinction between him and Obama.
5. Your lack of eloquence. There's not much he can do about this, but he is a midget in the midst of a giant when sitting next to Obama.
6. Your inability or unwillingness to separate yourself from Bush. You have failed to separate yourself from W, and it will probably cost you the election.
7. Your inability to defend the Republican party's good economic policies, and attack the Democrats for their responsibility in the recent market meltdown. I'm not saying that Republicans are completely free of liability here nor that Dems are fully to blame, but he has been consistently unable or unwilling to attack the Democrats on their ties with Fannie and Freddie and their unwillingness to regulate these Government Sponsored Entities while Republicans were asking for it!!! As a result of this he will probably lose the election.
8. Your "unendorsement" of the Fair Tax. Again, this was probably a calculated political move to unendorse a workable plan because it hasn't caught traction yet with the American people.
9. Your oldness. Not that I have anything against old people. I just wish he were 10 years younger. Again, nothing he can do about it, and I would much rather have his elderliness than Obama's inexperience and greenness.
10. Your Washington insider-ness. Again, nothing he can do about it, but I wish someone could get elected that was well known, tested, and without any connections to lobbyists. His "Washington insiderness" is mitigated by Palin, and his own record as a Maverick, and I would rather have his insiderness than Obama, with his baggage of lobbyists and troublesome aquaintances (Wright, Raines, Ayers, New Party Socialist buddies etc.).

I know, I know, I used McCain as a spring board from which to attack Obama. I was just anticipating retorts. As I said in my post about Obama, I do have an opinion.

A Great Article Outlining McCain vs Obama on Foreign Policy

McCain for President
by: Charles Krauthammer

This is an important issue that Americans need to think about. If this were pressed on them like the economy has been for the past month, McCain would be ahead by 5 to 10 points. As this article points out, the foreign policy experience of the candidate is much more important than the economic policies (even though McCain's economic policies are better than Obama's). If this is fear-mongering, what do you call what Obama and the MSM have been spewing about the Republican's culpability for the financial debacle?

A Rap Video Well Worth Watching

I think we all know someone like who this song is about. I sure do...

Crow

OK, I admit it. I was wrong about something. Sarah Palin and "First Dude" recently released their income tax returns. I predicted in the comments of this post here that Palin's tax return would show that she was significantly more charitable than the Dems in question. Now I was right that she was more charitable, but not by much. She has a cumulative $300K in income in 06 and 07 but only $8000 in charitable giving which is about 2.67%. Now, we only have two years of returns, which means that we may not have the whole story, but with what I have seen, I am a bit disappointed.
I just wanted to be a man of my word and eat my crow. It was a little yucky, but I'll live.

How Not To Help the Poor

HT: JT

Ten Things I Hate About You... Obama

Yes, the title is a little inflammatory, and and the post is long. My post about what I don't like about McCain probably won't be, but hey, I do have an opinion.

I had some time to write over the past few days with Emily being in the hospital and here is the long awaited for post on the things I dislike about Obama, or that would be bad about an Obama Presidency. Without further ado, Mr. Obama, here are ten things I don't like about you...

1. Your unmitigated, radical, and disastrous support of pro-abortion policies. I chose my words carefully here because Obama’s votes on this issue have been the most radical.
a. He voted against the Born Alive Infant Protection Act. He has all kinds of arguments for why he voted against it, but look at what he said when he spoke against it in office. He has continually fudged on what he said, and changed his story only after he got caught. (See documentation here where Robert George pieces together a timeline of Obama's radical stance on this important issue)
b. He claims that the first thing he will do as President is sign the Freedom of Choice Act, lifting all restrictions on abortion, making it a federally funded right. Forcing people to go against their conscience and pay for abortions. A similar legislation lifting restrictions on abortions was passed in Maryland and the number of abortions rose significantly above average rates countrywide- see documentation here.
c. He is against parental notification for minors having an abortion.
d. When asked about the morality of abortion he said that it was "above his paygrade" but has tirelessly and without hesitation legislated his morality on the issue.

2. Your tax policies that are anti-success, class warfare inducing, lacking in transparency, investment depressing.
a. He wants to shift the tax burden even more to the richest in society, which is unfair because they already carry their weight and more.
b. It is anti-success because it punishes people for doing well. It is class warfare inducing because he said “I want to spread the wealth around.”
c. It lacks in transparency, because lifting the costs on the people who produce products and set prices forces them to raise prices on everyone who buys products and therefore effectively taxes all Americans through increased product prices.
i. Obama either knows that this is the case and is being deceptive with his 95% mantra of the number of Americans who will not see a tax increase, or he just doesn’t know, which means he is ignorant.
ii. I want this to be clear. Obama is trying to sell the idea that he is shifting the tax burden from the middle class to the richest in America. The problem is that these people that he will tax, produce and sell all of the products that Americans buy. When this happens those people have a few options, they can either eat the loss by paying the taxes, keeping their prices and costs the same, or they can cut expenses (normally through firing people), and increase prices of the products commensurate with their increase in taxes. If you were them what would you do? Be patriotic and keep your prices the same? Yeah right. Obama’s plan is very deceptive and you have just been informed about it.
iii. A good argument could be made that this plan is the worst for the poorest Americans because Wal-Mart will be one of the most affected businesses by the tax increases. Wal-Mart’s product prices will increase and this will hurt the poorest Americans worse than the middle class.

3. The plan to raise capital gains rates will discourage investments. If there is not an economic advantage to investing over and above making ordinary income people will be less likely to invest.

4. Your health care plan that is vague, unaffordable, and will cause moral hazard.
a. He has been unclear and evasive when asked direct questions about his health care plan. How will he pay for it? How much will fines be for not providing insurance? How will he work with insurance companies to reduce premiums? How will he open up the federal plan to all Americans?
b. How will he enact this plan without bankrupting America? However he works with private companies, and the federal plan will cost Americans dearly. Not to mention the 50% tax credit for employers to provide this benefit for their employees. Employer provided insurance is a bad thing in general anyway, and Obama wants to expand it, see my comments under my last McCain post.
c. How will he keep the sickest of all from fleeing to the governmental program. Insurance companies must be able to price people’s risks into their premiums and if they cannot you take away yet another incentive fore people to stay healthy, and punish people for taking care of themselves. I don’t know about you, but I take reasonably good care of myself and I don’t want to see my premiums go up because Aunt Flossie smokes, has diabetes, eats Krispy Kremes for breakfast and doesn’t exercise.

5. Your spending plans will create a further deficit, and you have no plan on how to pay for all of what you want to do. His plan will increase the deficit by an estimated $7 trillion dollars in 8 years by some estimates.

6. Your education ideas are further steps down the road toward causing education in America to completely breakdown.
a. He is unwilling to allow school choice.
b. He is unwilling to allow vouchers.
c. He is unwilling to hold teachers accountable by paying them more for performance and giving superintendents more power to hire and fire.
d. He will probably be unsupportive of home-schooling and private schools.

7. Your association with Jeremiah Wright.
a. He (Jeremiah) is a racist, who believes that God is on the side specifically of the “black community” to the exclusion of other races. See Black Liberation Theology if you don’t believe me.
b. He does not like America and doesn’t want us to survive.
c. I don’t know whether he agrees with everything that Jeremiah stands for, but at best it shows a severe lack of judgment to remain associated with such a man. This is the man who discipled him. The idea that this was a lack of judgment and that somehow he didn’t know what he really believed looks less likely than an intentional relationship with a mentor. Come on, give me a break. I am very intentional about who I pal around with as far as spiritual mentors, and I am proud of them as men who love God and love people. The idea that I would be unaware of some very central tenets of their theology that would be troublesome is highly unlikely.

8. Your association with Williams Ayers in an educational program.
a. He was a terrorist who bombed governmental agencies in America in protest of Vietnam.
b. Obama was on a board with Ayers, which by itself is not a big deal, but they worked together on an education effort to radicalize children with liberal ideology.

9. Your association with Freddie Mac. He took the second highest amount in donations from Freddie Mac executives which, along with Fannie Mae, were some of the most to blame for the recent housing crisis.

10. Your overall vision for the government getting involved in every aspect of our lives that you seem to have. This “do-gooder” mentality, while well intended, will be disastrous for our country in the long run.